Saquon torn acl odds — Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts

This past summer there was a debate on Twitter about how Saquon Barkley would do in 2021 after he suffered a major knee injury last season. One side argued that reconstructive knee surgery was no small issue. They said it took two years for some athletes to feel close to 100% again. They warned there is a substantial risk of selecting Saquon in the early rounds of a fantasy football draft in 2021. (Note, Saquon Barkley’s current ADP on Fantasy Pros is fifth overall.) The other side argued that those concerns were overblown. Advances in the medical field had shortened the rehab time for athletes to feel 100%. Who is right? So that got me thinking, how did other RBs perform the following season after they underwent reconstructive knee surgery?

First, let's start with the great outcomes. Adrian Peterson stunned the NFL and medical world by coming back a mere nine months after he tore his ACL. His story is the gold standard by which all injured RBs strive for. Peterson eclipsed the 2,000-yard rushing mark, a feat only a few RBs have accomplished, even when they entered a season completely healthy. He also added 13 TDs. In addition to Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Jamal Lewis both had over 1,700 yards and added either 6-7 TDs. While those TDs were a little on the low side, the yardage numbers were impressive.

THE GREAT OUTCOMES

Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and MCL Dec 2011

Following season 2012- 16 games 348 rushes 2,097 yards 12 TDs 40 receptions 217 yards 1`TD

Jamaal Charles tore his ACL Sept 2011

Following season 2012- 16 games 285 rushes 1,509 yards 5 TDs 35 receptions 236 yards 1 TD

Jamal Lewis tore his ACL and sprained MCL Aug 2001

Following season 2002- 16 games 308 rushes 1,327 yards 6 TDs 47 receptions 442 yards 1 TD

The next tier RBs are in the good outcomes category. Jamal Anderson, Edgerrin James, Ronnie Brown, and Deuce McAllister fall into this tier. All four finished with at least 1,200 total yards. Their TD totals were 3, 6, 10, and 10. Brown and McAllister scored the most with 10 TDs each. Both performed much better than Anderson and James who scored only 6 and 3 times respectively. All of the RBs in this group had fine seasons, however, they were still a few pegs below Peterson.

THE GOOD OUTCOMES

Jamal Anderson- torn ACL Sept 1999

Following season 2000- 16 games 282 rushes 1,024 yards 6 TDs 42 receptions 382 yards 0 TDs

Edgerrin James- torn ACL Oct 2001

Following season 2002- played 14 games 277 rushes 989 yards 2 TDs 61 receptions 354 yards 1 TD

Ronnie Brown- torn ACL Oct 2007

Following season 2008- 16 games 214 rushes 916 yards 10 TDs 33 receptions 254 yards 0 TDs

Deuce McAllister- torn ACL Oct 2005

Following season 2006- 15 games 244 rushes 1057 yards 10 TDs 30 receptions 198 yards 0 TDs

Finally, let's look at the ugly outcomes. The best performance from this group was also the most recent RB who came back from a torn ACL, Dalvin Cook. Cook had over 900 total yards and 3 TDs in 2018. However, he was unable to last the season. He played in only 11 games. Many in this tier, such as Terrell Davis, Robert Edwards, Rashard Mendenhall, and Kevin Jones, did poorly (if they played at all). One last note worth mentioning, many of their careers ended shortly afterward.

THE UGLY OUTCOMES

Robert Edwards- torn ACL, MCL, and PCL Feb 1999

Following season- Did not play. Played sparingly in 2002.

*Note- during surgery Edwards was 2 hours away from having his leg amputated.

Terrell Davis- torn ACL and MCL and had cartilage damage in Oct 1999

Following season 2000- 5 games 78 rushes 282 yards 2 TDs 2 receptions 4 yards 0 TDs

Kevin Jones- torn ACL 2007

Following season 2008- 11 games 34 rushes 109 yards 0 TDs 2 receptions 5 yards 0 TDs

Rashard Mendenhall- torn ACL Dec 2011

Following season 2012- 6 games 51 rushes 182 yards 0 TDs 9 receptions 62 yards 1 TD

Knowshon Moreno- torn ACL Nov 2011

Following season 2012- 8 games 138 rushes 525 yards 4 TDs 21 receptions 167 yards 0 TDs

Dalvin Cook- torn ACL Oct 2017

Following season 2018- 11 games 133 rushes 615 yards 2 TDs 40 receptions 305 yards 2 TDs

CONCLUSION

Out of the thirteen RBs who underwent major reconstructive knee surgery the prior season: three had great outcomes, four had good outcomes, and six had ugly outcomes. And while it’s true that there is more than one factor that affects a RB’s performance (for ex. the offensive line, the QB, the opponent’s defense, etc.), coming off a serious knee injury is one of the most impactful. The research in this study show that drafters who assume that Saquon Barkley is a safe first-round pick in 2021 are wrong. The lesson by Spanish philosopher George Santayana here is, “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it”. Keep in mind, Saquon is currently ranked as the fifth overall player at Fantasy Pros ADP (average draft position). Also note that these rankings were not made by casual fans, but instead compiled by industry analysts who follow fantasy football year-round. Historical data tells us there is almost a 50% chance that Saquon will turn into a bust in 2021. So basically these analysts are willing to risk their first-round picks and, what amounts to, their fantasy seasons, on a coin flip. It's very difficult for most owners to overcome a first-round pick who either gets injured or turns into a bust. Before the injury, Saquon Barkley was considered by many as one of the most talented RBs to ever set foot in the NFL. If anyone can overcome the odds and replicate an Adrian Peterson comeback season it’s Saquon. However, to dismiss reconstructive knee surgery as no big deal is foolhardy. There’s an old saying in fantasy football, you can’t win your league in the early rounds of a draft, but you sure as heck can lose it. I’m rooting for Saquon, but the odds are stacked against him. The data clearly shows that there is a significant risk for drafters who decide to select him (or any RB) coming off reconstructive knee surgery from the prior season, in the first-round.

Mark Ringo