2019 Seattle Seahawks
Head Coach- Pete Carroll
Offensive Coaching Philosophy- Conservative run heavy
What to Expect. Pete Carroll hired Brian Schottenheimer as his offensive coordinator in 2018. If that name sounds familiar it should. He’s the son of longtime head coach Marty Schottenheimer (Cleveland, Washington, and San Diego) whose offensive philosophy is run the ball, don’t turn the ball over, and control the clock. When Drew Brees played under him at San Diego “Marty Ball” turned the future HOF into a game manager. It was Ladainian Tomlinson who racked up the yards and touchdowns, not Brees.
Quarterback- Russell Wilson gave an ultimatum to Seattle brass this offseason, pay me or else. They did. Wilson is one of the most dynamic players in the game, but this offense is not good for QBs. It’s too conservative. From a real life perspective it’s okay to keep your QB from taking too many hits. From a fantasy perspective it’s awful. Wilson is being overdrafted by owners unfamiliar with Schottenheimer’s conservative approach. Fantasy analysts are banking on a repeat of 35 TDs which seems unlikely.
Running Back- The benefactors of a conservative offense in Marty Ball or Brian Ball are the RBs. The main guys are Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny. I expect a RBBC. The word is it takes time for Penny to learn an offense and feel comfortable. He thinks too much when he’s unsure and instead needs to react. Carson knows the system better and he’s a very hard nosed runner. Carroll loves guys like Carson, however, Seattle didn’t spend a first round pick to sit Penny on the bench so this is a full blown RBBC. If anything happens to Carson- don’t expect Penny to take all the snaps. As of now it looks like Bo Scarborough, the former Alabama RB, to fill in, but that could change.. .JD McKissic looks like the 3rd down back.
Wide Receiver/Tight Ends- Doug Baldwin never made it back to 100% from an injury riddled 2018. Seattle made the difficult choice to cut him. He was a fierce competitor who always played with a chip on his shoulder. This is a huge loss for the Seahawks. They’ll try to fill the void with Tyler Lockett, Jaron Brown, David Moore, and rookie DK Metcalf. Lockett has the best chance to post numbers, but this is a run heavy offense. He’s going way too high imo. Brown has had injury issues and might be a salary cap casualty. The guess is Moore is the likely candidate to replace Baldwin. The word from scouts on the rookie Metcalf is he needs to develop his route running. In addition they mentioned the press thought more highly of him than NFL execs. There’s not much here folks fantasy wise- at least under this current run first coaching regime.
Offensive Line- Poor- They’re better at run blocking than pass blocking. The left side is decent with Duane Brown and Mike Iupati. It’s the right side that’s worrisome. Neither Germain Ifedi or D.J. Fluker have lived up to their first round pedigree. Fluker was a high pick by the Chiefs. If Wilson is forced to pass he’ll have to scramble to buy time. Fortunately that’s one of his strengths.
Schedule- Okay not great- Baltimore, Arizona, and Tampa are good matchups. Cleveland and Minnesota not so much.
Bye- Week 11
Playoff Schedule- weeks 14-17 Okay @ LA Rams, @ Carolina, vs Arizona, vs SF There’s potential here for some high scoring games. The Rams defense underperformed last year. Ndamukong Suh left for Tampa Bay in free agency, but Aaron Donald still causes havoc. The 49’ers added Nick Bosa in the draft to solidify a strong defensive line.
Bust- QB Russell Wilson- (Fantasy Pros 6th ranked QB) is too high for a QB in a conservative offense like Seattle’s. Losing WR Doug Baldwin doesn’t help. WR Tyler Lockett- (Fantasy Pros 24th ranked WR) same reason- conservative offense hurts his numbers. He’s not a big WR hurting his red zone chances.
Bottom Line- It’s amazing what an offensive scheme can do to a player’s stats. If Seattle ran a more aggressive offense like Arizona- Russell Wilson could put up monster numbers. That’s not happening here. He’s going way too high. WR Tyler Lockett looks like a bust for the same reason. If you’ve got to pick a Seahawk- RB Chris Carson is the guy. Fantasy Pros #20 RB ranking seems like fair value, but if anything happens to Rashaad Penny things could get real interesting. Carson really came on strong late last year with over 90 yards and 5 TDs in Seattle’s last four regular season games.