ADP- Mark's Analysis — Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts

Source- adp’s taken from Fantasy Pros (Sept 9, 2016)

1. Antonio Brown Wr- Hard to argue with Brown. He’s on one of the most explosive offenses in the league and is a monster in ppr (point per reception) leagues. The problem if you go wide receiver is it’s a long wait until you get to pick a running back. As consistent as they come. Solid and safe.

2. Odell Beckham Wr- As good as Brown is I like Beckham more- at least in non ppr leagues. He seems more explosive to me when I watch the highlights.. Doesn’t get as many chances as Brown which is puzzling. Note he’s off to one of the best starts ever in the NFL as a young receiver.

3. Todd Gurley Rb- Looks like another version of AP. A work horse back. Runs with unparalleled speed and power. The risk is a previous knee injury in college. Can he hold up over the course of a 16 game season? Unfortunately the Rams offense doesn’t give him much help. Their line is awful and young rookie quarterback Goff needs time. Plays a tough schedule. A little high for me here at 3rd overall.

4. Julio Jones Wr- Jones is a prototypical number 1. Has elite speed and size to outjump defenders. Not as many touchdowns as you’d think- perhaps due to Matt Ryan adjusting to a new offense.

5. David Johnson Rb- My #1 running back and overall #1 player on the board. The reason- has the chance to score big points at a premium position. The drop off at running back is off a cliff. An electric game changing back who can score anytime he touches it. Possess elite receiving skills which he developed in college when he played wide receiver. Plays on an explosive offense in the Cardinals. The risk- if Bruce Arians splits his carries with Chris Johnson that would make him not worth the price tag.. The reward outweighs the risk for me. I’m all in. I’ll wait until the 2ndround to address wide receiver.

6. Adrian Peterson Rb- One of greatest running backs of all time. His speed and power are legendary. Unfortunately, like Gurley, AP plays on a below average offense. Bradford might help, but the Vikings line needs to improve their run blocking to help spring him for big gains. He was stopped too often near the goal line. Not as valuable in ppr leagues- doesn’t get as many catches as other running backs. Still a force to be reckoned with every Sunday.

7. Ezekiel Elliott Rb- Some scouts called him the best player in the draft. Rarely goes down on the first tackle. Can catch the ball well out of the backfield. Looks legit to me after seeing him play against Seattle. Running behind the all pro Cowboys line looks like a perfect match. Romo’s loss hurts the offense. It comes down to whether Dak Prescott can hold his own at quarterback. If he can look out! With Romo gone Dallas could run the read option like Seattle does with Russell Wilson. It could be problematic for opposing defenses. Worth the first round price tag. I’m buying.

8. DeAndre Hopkins Wr- How he put up the numbers he did last year I’ll never know. The Texans had nothing at quarterback last year and no one opposite of Hopkins to worry about. Should do well again with more weapons added to the offense. The risk- Houston lost rookie center Nick Martin to an injury. Can the line protect Osweiler long enough to get it to Hopkins?

9. Rob Gronkowski TE- One of the greatest tight ends ever to play, but 9th overall is too rich for me. A hamstring injury in August plus losing Brady for the first four games kills his value at this price point.

10. AJ Green Wr- One of the games top wide receivers. Can score anytime he catches it. Played on a run centered offense when previous offensive coordinator Hue Jackson ran the show. Will new offensive coordinator, Ken Zampese, who was promoted from within, keep things the same or open up the passing game? Andy Dalton struggles with the deep pass. AJ might be a little overvalued here.

11. Lamar Miller Rb- Not sure about Miller. If he was so good why did Miami not utilize him more? Why did they let him go? Can he hold up with a full workload? He’s not a big back so I fear an injury risk is higher here. Can the questionable Texans line block for him? Too risky for me in the 1st. but in the 2nd I’ll roll the dice

12. LeVeon Bell Rb- The ultimate risk/reward player. If his knee holds up he’s a monster- especially in ppr leagues where he catches a ton of passes. He’ll miss the first 3 games due to a suspension. If you get him then grabbing DeAngelo Williams is a must. The knee concerns me. He has broken down two years in a row. Possible bust due to injury. I’d probably look elsewhere.

13. Allen Robinson Wr- Up and comer who has made vast improvements to his game in a short amount of time. Touchdowns and yards could regress though. Fully priced here- too rich for me. Pass.

14. Devonta Freeman Rb- Looks like a solid player, but beware of Tevin Coleman who I like better. Coleman is an electric back drafted by the current front office. Coleman broke his ribs early last year which hampered his season. He’s healthy now. Looks like a rbbc (running back by committee) here. Because of that Freeman looks like a huge bust because of his high price tag. Not for me.

15. Dez Bryant Wr- One of the top five talents at wide receiver. Dez is a game breaker. The risk- he plays in a run heavy offense and losing Romo hurts. Can Dak get him the rock and move the chains? Can Dez hold off the injuries? I say he’s still worth the risk in the 2nd.

16. Cam Newton Qb- A quarterback built like a linebacker who can fly. Often gets the call at the goal line. Reminds me of former quarterback Daunte Culpepper. Cam racks up points in standard leagues where touchdown passes are only worth 4 points. That said this seems too high for any quarterback. His running attempts make him susceptible to more hits and injuries. I’ll pass here.

17. Jordy Nelson Wr- If the knee holds up he’s a value here. Probably will take a few weeks until he’s playing all of the snaps. If your patient he could pay major dividends for your team down the road. Has one of the best in the business throwing him the rock. I’m buying.

18. Brandon Marshall Wr- Reminds me of Terrell Owens. A physical force who’s a beast to tackle. Jets play a brutal schedule and this guy is no spring chicken who is now in his 30’s. Because of that I’d take him in the 3rd but not the 2nd.

19. Jamaal Charles Rb- He’s coming off another major knee injury. Too rich for me here. In the 3rd I’d consider him. In the 4th he’s a great value. Pass here.

20. Eddie Lacy Rb- He seems more focused this year. It’s a contract year. Vowed to get in better shape after the Coach McCarthy called him out. He’s in a time share with Starks as the Packers like to save the wear and tear on their backs. Still a good pick in the 2nd because of that powerful offense.

21. Mike Evans Wr- An elite young talent who’s developing a rapport with Jameis Winston. Should take a giant step up this season as Winston improves. Like him here.

22. Mark Ingram Rb- When he plays he puts up points. The problem is he gets injured a lot. Apparently it’s been more fluke injuries than ones that linger. The Saints lousy line and terrible defense, along with his injuries, are enough to make me pass on him here.

23. Doug Martin Rb- Did well last year, but way too rich for my blood here. He’s an injury risk as well. Pass.

24. Keenan Allen Wr- A monster in ppr leagues who was doing great until an injury ended his season. He’s good but the Chargers line scares me a little. I like others better here. Give me Amari Cooper instead.

25. Aaron Rodgers Qb- One of the best in the league. I prefer Luck because he gets more passing yards, but it’s dealer’s choice. I think the Pack will run more this year, but I’m confident Rodgers bounces back- mainly because I had him last year when he was terrible and didn’t get him this year. The famous Mark jinx is in full effect here. Plays a good schedule as well.

26. LeSean McCoy Rb- Could get more goal line looks now that Karlos Williams is gone. He should thank him and buy him dinner haha! That said, he’s had a ton of work over the years. McCoy’s not the biggest back- he might start wearing down soon. He’s a bigger risk to slow down than AP in my opinion. I’m passing.

27. Alshon Jeffery Wr- The Bears offense is horrible. They don’t have a line and Jeffery has a history of soft tissue injuries. Bust

28. Amari Cooper Wr- Played hurt last year. Not as big or fast as Julio Jones, but man can he run routes. Scouts compare him to former Colts receiver Reggie Wayne. He’s healthy now and is likely to improve. Love him here.

29. Brandin Cooks Wr- Started off slow last year, but came on midseason. The Saints spread the ball around too much for me with those multiple receiver sets. Size hinders his red zone chances. Brees is another year older. I’ll pass.

30. Sammy Watkins Wr- Has the same foot injury that sidelined Dez and Kevin Durant. If he’s healthy all year- he’d be a 1st rounder. He’s that good. The foot scares me which is why I’ll pass on him here. In the 4th I’d roll the dice, but he’ll be long gone by then.

31. CJ Anderson Rb- A dynamic back, but he’s in a committee now with the rookie Devontae Booker. Trevor Siemian at quarterback doesn’t help his touchdown totals. I’ll pass

32. Demaryius Thomas Wr- Denver will run the ball. That spells bad news for their wide receivers. This has bust written all over it.

33. Russell Wilson Qb- The most elusive quarterback in football, however, the Seahawks line is shaky at best. He could get beat up. I’ll pass.

34. TY Hilton Wr- A speed demon whose stats were hurt when Luck went down. I like him, but I like Moncrief more.

35. Thomas Rawls Rb- A bad ankle and an emerging Christine Michael make this a risky pick. No way am I spending a 3rd rounder on Rawls when I can get Michael eight rounds later. Looks like a rbbc timeshare to me. Pass.

36. Carlos Hyde Rb- This guy did nothing last year. He was hurt so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. He might be a good back, but the 49’ers are terrible on both sides of the ball. They’ll be trailing and forced to pass. And he gets to face Seattle and Arizona twice. How is he going this early? Bust

37. Jordan Reed TE- Way too early for any tight end. He has a history of injury issues. No chance.

38. Latavius Murray Rb- An improved Raiders line saves this pick. He wore down last year so they’ll conserve his touches. I’m worried he breaks down. He’s not the most durable guy. I’d look elsewhere if possible.

39. Matt Forte Rb- A once elite back is nearing the end of the line. The loss of Khiry Robinson to injury helps him with more touchdown chances. That said, he’s still in a time share with Bilal Powell. Way too early for a running back in his 30’s. Bust

40. Randall Cobb Wr- Could not beat the double teams once Jordy got hurt. Moves back into the slot now where he flourishes. A lot of owners were burned last year which makes him a good value. I’m buying.

41. Jarvis Landry Wr- The Dolphins look lost in the preseason as they’re learning a new offense. If DeVante Parker ever gets on the field Landry could play 2nd fiddle to him. Much too high here- no upside. Bust

42. Greg Olsen TE- Too early for tight ends. Pass

43. Andrew Luck Qb- The #1 quarterback on my board. If the Colts protect him he’ll put up monster numbers. He’s a game changer. The risk is worth the reward for me. Steal here.

44. Julian Edelman Wr- A monster in ppr leagues, but the additions of Martellus Bennett and Chris Hogan could reduce his opportunities. Losing Brady for the first four games doesn’t help. Bust.

45. Jonathan Stewart Rb- He usually breaks down over the course of a season and has Cam stealing his touchdowns. Seriously I don’t get the Stewart love. No thanks. Bust.

46. Doug Baldwin Wr- Took over in the 2nd half last year. Plays with a chip on his shoulder which is always a good thing. Looks like the go to man after Jimmy Graham was hurt. Doesn’t get a ton of yards, but the touchdown totals are interesting. I’m going to wait and see this year. I like others better here, but will keep an eye on him this season.

47. Demarco Murray Rb- Hard to believe two years ago he set the NFL on fire in Dallas. He should have stayed there. If I was a running back I would never voluntarily leave a team with that line in front of me. And I didn’t even mention those Dallas cheerleaders. Do the Titans even have cheerleaders? Beware of rookie Derrick Henry who had a tremendous preseason. He could vulture touchdowns and take carries away from Murray. This situation has committee written all over it. No thanks I’ll pass on Murray. Can I draft the Dallas cheerleaders instead?

48. Jeremy Hill Rb- Hill burned a lot of owners last year because they overvalued him. Cincinnati runs a committee between him and Bernard. You don’t take running backs in a committee in the late 1st or early 2nd round. If Bernard gets hurt Hill could put up impressive numbers again. Cincy’s offense is solid. That said, this still seems a bit early. I’d rather go after a wide receiver.

49. Eric Decker Wr- A touchdown machine last year. Fitzpatrick had a career year last season. The Jets schedule is tough though. I like other wide receivers better. I’ll pass.

50. Drew Brees Qb- Another year older and a tougher schedule are worrisome. I’d rather be early to the party than late. Pass

51. Kelvin Benjamin Wr- Not the worst pick because of his talent, but he plays on a run oriented team which limits his upside. If I’m picking receivers I want them to be on teams that like to pass it. I know I’m picky like that. He’s coming off a torn acl which is another concern. I’ll go after others like Moncrief or Floyd instead.

52. Jeremy Maclin Wr- Moves inside with the emergence of Chris Conley. Limited upside because of Alex Smith, who refuses to throw the ball into a crowd. I’d pass here.

53. Ben Roethlisberger Qb- One of the games’ best. He can literally win you a week some Sundays because of the Steelers hurry up passing offense. Needs another wide receiver to emerge next to Brown to help his totals. Plays a great schedule. I’m buying.

54. Ryan Mathews Rb- The Eagles offense is terrible. No way a rookie quarterback from North Dakota State comes into the NFL and does well right away. They’re not exactly playing SEC opponents over there ya’ know. It will take some time. I predict 2016 is a long year for the Philly offense which includes Mathews. I’m avoiding all Eagles. Bust

55. Golden Tate Wr- Did well when Calvin Johnson was injured. Can he be the go to guy now that he’s gone? Can he stay healthy? He’s not the biggest wide receiver out there. This seems risky for me here. I think the yards will be spread out evenly between him and Marvin Jones. Not a Stafford fan and Jones is cheaper. Pass

56. Donte Moncrief Wr- My sleeper/breakout special. He’ll get a lot of looks in the red zone too since he’s the biggest wide receiver on the Colts. He has some wheels as well. If the Colts can protect Luck, Moncrief could put up top 10 numbers. I’m all in. Steal

57. Travis Kelce TE- Wait on all tight ends until late. This is crazy early. Pass

58. Jeremy Langford Rb- The Bears have no offense and no line. They lost their starting center for the year. In addition, their best lineman, Kyle Long, is playing hurt, and Langford is still getting picked here? Are you guys nuts? Are you hitting the bottle? What the heck? I get the I need a running back rationale, but I’d have more respect for someone picking a tight end over Langford, and I hate tight end selections this early. Bust

59. Michael Floyd Wr- He hurt his hand last preseason which contributed to his slow start. Once it healed up, he turned it on midseason. Flying under the radar-(see what I did there- flying and he’s a Cardinal, that’s just pure, natural writing talent there folks). Anyway where was I? Oh yeah Floyd– he’s the go to guy in Arizona. I love him here. Breakout candidate. Steal

60. Delanie Walker TE- Yet another tight end selection. No one reads my tight end articles. Well I guess it could be worse- at least it’s not Jeremy Langford. Although that’s because he went earlier- ugh!

61. Carson Palmer Qb- My only concern with Palmer is can he stay healthy? If he does this is a solid pick. He plays on a team that loves to pass and has plenty of weapons to work with- like Floyd.

62. Larry Fitzgerald Wr- He’s lost a step. Yardage totals are lacking because he works underneath routes. Okay for ppr leagues because he gets a lot of catches, but Floyd is younger, has much more upside and is a better value only a few picks earlier. Pass

63. Melvin Gordon Rb- Terrible rookie year. He played all year and didn’t score a touchdown? Seriously the odds of that happening had to be astronomical. He had offseason microfracture surgery in his knee which scares the heck out of me. The Chargers line is not the best. Let someone else risk it. No chance I will.

64. Tom Brady Qb- I can’t believe he’s 39. He still has zip on his passes. No signs of slowing down. Tough schedule is my concern along with the 4 game suspension. New England plays Denver in week 15- which is a playoff week for many fantasy leagues. Because of that I’d pass here even though he’s one of my favorite players.

65. Emmanuel Sanders Wr- Trevor who at quarterback?? And eventually they’ll give rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch a shot. The Broncos are going to run not pass this year. Bust

66. Matt Jones Rb- Jones looked like a star last preseason and then burned me when I picked him up off waivers. He wore down last year, has an injury history, and his fumbling issue didn’t endear him to coaches. He hurt his shoulder in the preseason. I think it affects him all year. Too much risk. Bust

67. Arian Foster Rb- Coming off a torn Achilles is tough. Miami has struggled on offense in the preseason, but one of the few bright spots has been Foster. I think he wins the job and is the workhorse back down there. Not sure if he can hold up over the season, but I’m buying. Much better value than Matt Jones in my opinion. One of the best in the game when he plays.

68. Coby Fleener TE- Still too early for tight ends. Wait until the last few rounds.

69. Eli Manning Qb- Eli is at a discount because people still associate him with former coach Tom Coughlin who loved to run the ball. His current coach likes to pass. If rookie wide receiver Sterling Shepard lives up to the hype Eli could have his best year ever. Plays a good schedule too. Love him here. Steal

70. Jordan Mathews Wr- Seriously why do people take players on lousy teams so early? Will the Eagles ever score? Bust

71. Frank Gore Rb- Liked him a lot more until I saw that Colts line. They can’t run block at all. He might score some touchdowns, but the yardage totals won’t be great. That said, he can only improve on his numbers from last year where he had to do it without Luck. Worth a shot.

72. Giovanni Bernard Rb- More valuable in ppr leagues. In non ppr leagues this is way too early since he’s in a rbbc. I like guys who score touchdowns from the one, Jeremy Hill usually scores them not Bernard and since my league isn’t ppr, I’d pass here.

73. John Brown Wr- Suffered a concussion injury which lingered with him several weeks. Only recently has he returned to practice. Once a player sustains a concussion they’re more susceptible to them in the future. Major injury risk. Bust

74. Gary Barnidge TE- I give up no one ever listens to me- ugh! Too early for tight ends especially ones on the Browns.

75. Allen Hurns Wr- Tough receiver who fought through injuries last year to have a solid year as one of my former sleepers. Moves into the slot with Marqise Lee taking over on deeper routes. My concern is if the Jaguars will throw it as much now that they have a better defense? Also will Lee steal some targets now that he’s healthy. I like other wide receiver’s a little better here, but Hurns seems legit to me. Marqise Lee is a lot cheaper and might be even better than Hurns so if I want a Jaguar wide receiver I’d target him instead.

76. Blake Bortles Qb- Not the most glitzy pick and throws his shares of clunkers but man, this guy has some real weapons to throw to now. Robinson, Hurns , Lee and Julius Thomas are quietly one of the best crews in the league that no one is talking about, well except me that is, although technically I’m writing about them. My only concern with the Jaguars, which I mentioned earlier, are the limited opportunities if their defense improves, but they still play Tennessee and Indy twice which could turn into shootouts. I’m in.

77. Danny Woodhead Rb- Only worth it if it’s a ppr league. Anything else it’s a reach. No upside here. Pass.

78. DeSean Jackson Wr- Still a dangerous deep threat, but Cousins isn’t known for a strong arm. Jackson is limited in the red zone because of his size. Rookie wide receiver Doctson could steal some opportunities as well. Pass

79. Duke Johnson Rb- Love his talent. Duke has exceptional receiving skills and the potential to be a three down back which is rare. Reminds scouts of LeSean McCoy. The risk- the Browns line is bad and RGIII takes too many sacks. If McCown takes over I’d bump him up. In ppr I’d consider, but I’d wait in non ppr leagues.

80. Philip Rivers Qb- It’s too bad they refuse to invest in a line for this guy. He’s a competitor who wants to win at all costs. Love his fire. Rivers is a statue back there though- he needs a clean pocket. If he has time he’ll pick a defense apart. Plays a tough schedule being in the AFC West so Von Miller might have something to say about his touchdowns. Limited upside. I’ll pass.

81. Chris Ivory Rb- Runs hard, but can’t seem to stay healthy. Should have a lot of scoring chances on an emerging Jaguars offense. Their line is still weak, so yardage totals might be on the lower side. He’s in a rbbc with TJ Yeldon. Like others better.

82. Rashad Jennings Rb- In the past as a workhorse back he put up good numbers, but would break down. The release of Andre Williams helps. He should get the call at the goal line now. He’s good as long as he holds up- that’s the issue and he’s no spring chicken. I like others better.

83. Tyler Lockett Wr- A small, fast receiver and dangerous return man who can score at will. Seems too small to last over a 16 game season. This is way too high for me. Bust.

84. DeAngelo Williams Rb- Proved what he could do when given a chance in that offense. He’s a top running back the first 3 weeks this season while Bell is suspended and if Bell gets hurt you’ve won the lottery. Steal

85. Marvin Jones Wr- Worth a shot. Put up good numbers in Cincy, but lacks elite speed to scare defenses. Costs a lot less than Golden Tate so if I’m looking for a Lions receiver I’d gamble on Jones over Tate for that reason. Not a Stafford fan so I like others a little better. Boldin could steal some touchdowns as well.

86. Ameer Abdullah Rb- Not a fan of him or his situation. Fumbles too much and now that Calvin Johnson is gone Detroit has no one to scare defenses deep. That should push the safeties up and make it harder to run. I’m avoiding.

87. Josh Gordon Wr- Suspended the first 4 games because of drugs. Maybe him and Brady can hang out and do lunch. If it happens again he could be out a year so there are risks. That said, this guy has serious talent. Looked impressive vs Tampa in the preseason which awoke a lot of people to his sleeper status- including the guys in my league dang it. Why can’t they watch Seinfeld instead? In 2013 he led the NFL in receiving yards. He’s a big play machine. It’s rare to find this kind of talent this late. Despite the risks- I love him here. Steal.

88. Michael Crabtree Wr- One of the league’s comeback players last year. Injuries have derailed a once promising career. Still, he joined a team with a good passing game and held up health wise. He’s a possession receiver more than a big play one, but his size helps his red zone looks. Has limited upside though. I think what he did last year is his ceiling. I’ll pass.

89. Denver Defense – They’re solid, but this is too early for a defense. Here’s what worries me. I expect their offense to struggle with moving the ball and will commit a lot of turnovers. That ultimately hurts a defense. Losing Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan doesn’t help. Pass.

90. Antonio Gates TE- One of the greatest tight ends of all time, but he’s an old man in a young man’s game. Still a force near the red zone, but plays limited snaps these days. No upside here. Pass

91. Derrick Henry Rb- The Heisman trophy winner had an impressive preseason. He’s in a rbbc and could get the goal line looks because of his size and power. The risks- the Titan’s defense is awful so they might have to abandon the running game and this guy is not known for his receiving skills. Other pundits love him. As for myself he’s okay, but I like others better so I won’t get him.

92. Julius Thomas TE- Disappointed last year, but this is an emerging offense. Might be okay, but still too early for tight ends. I’ll wait and grab whoever is left. Not much difference to me. Pass

93. Zach Ertz TE- Too early for tight ends and he plays on a lousy team with a rookie quarterback to boot- are you kidding? There must be a lot of Eagles fans drafting. No chance. Bust.

94. Seattle Defense- Too early for a defense, but man these guys are good. Probably the best defense in the NFL. If the offense struggles that hurts their potential since the defensive ends can’t pin their ears back and rush the passer, causing sacks and turnovers. So we’ll see.

95. Stephen Gostkowski K- The first 4 weeks when Brady is gone no way is he a top kicker. After that maybe. Add to that this crazy price tag and no chance I’m getting him. Terrible pick here. Kickers should always be your last pick. Avoid.

96. Sterling Shepard Wr- Now this is more like it. He’s drawn rave reviews and joins a high powered offense. I think Victor Cruz is done so he’s becomes the #2 guy in my opinion. Should see a lot of single coverage with defenses focused on Odell Beckham. Sleeper. Love him here.

97. TJ Yeldon Rb- Seemed to wear down last year. The signing of Chris Ivory hurts his value since he’ll get the call at the goal line over TJ. The Jaguars run blocking is terrible. Needs Ivory to get hurt which is entirely possible. Still I’ll pass.

98. Tyler Eifert TE- When healthy I like him, but he’s hurt to start the year so he’ll miss a few weeks. Will he be the same player when he comes back? Too risky for me. Pass

99. Derek Carr Qb- This guy is the real deal. The Raiders signed a tackle Kelemechi Osemele from Baltimore in free agency to help with pass protection and Amari Cooper is healthy now. Should take another step forward. Love him here. Steal.

100. Carolina Defense- They’re solid, but this is too early for a defense is most formats. Pass

101. Kevin White Wr- He’s talented, but raw at least that’s the word on the street. Still needs to learn how to run routes. The Bears line is terrible which means Cutler will be under constant duress. Down the road maybe, but not this year. Pass.

102. Arizona Defense- Love them. My top rated defense along with Seattle- it’s a tie 1a and 1b. Their offense is explosive so when the Cardinals get to a lead they cause turnovers and pile up sacks. Still early for a defense, but if your dead set on getting one this is the one I’d get.

103. Devante Parker Wr- Loved him this year until I saw the Dolphins offense. Now he’s struggling with another hamstring injury and in the coach’s doghouse. I still love his talent- he’s fast and big. Scouts say his ceiling is a prototypical #1 wide receiver, and he compares to DeAndre Hopkins. Might come on midseason if he can get healthy. Worth a shot.

104. LeGarrette Blount Rb- He’s a goal line vulture on a strong team. He can score multiple touchdowns a week or give you next to nothing. Can’t catch passes so he’s more of a non ppr pick. Worthless until Brady comes back week 5. Limited upside. I like others better.

105. Jay Ajayi Rb- He has no cartilage in his knee. No way he holds up if he gets a lot of carries. The Miami job is Foster’s in my opinion. I want no part of Ajayi. Bust.

106. Stefon Diggs Wr- Talented receiver on a lousy offense- it breaks my heart- well almost. Bridgewater was terrible last year- unfortunately he suffered a horrific injury eight days before the start of the season so now Sam Bradford will be the guy. Diggs might improve on his numbers if Sam is still standing midseason. The Vikings line is not the best. Pass

107. Tavon Austin Wr- Another wide receiver who plays on a lousy offense. Austin gets some points on run plays, but not enough to get me interested. The Rams are a running team. No thanks. Pass

108. Kirk Cousins Qb- Captain Kirk is now the guy in Washington. Plays an easy schedule, but I’m not 100% sold on him. Not the strongest arm in the world either. Can he get the ball to DeSean Jackson for some big plays? The run game has struggled which doesn’t help. I like others better. Time to move on. Sulu warp 5- Engage! Oh yeah I’ll pass.

109. Justin Forsett Rb- The situation in Baltimore is mass confusion. It’s not a rbbc- it’s a party there are so many people in the mix. Terrance West had a strong preseason. Dixon might be a factor later in the season. I’m staying away from this mess. Avoid

110. Stephen Hauschka K- Way too early for a kicker. Pass

111. Willie Snead Wr- Saints spread the ball around too much for me. Pass

112. Tyrod Taylor Qb- I’m not 100% sold on him, but he’s a sneaky play. He gets those rushing yards which really add up. They don’t call him T-Mobile for nothing. If Sammy Watkins can stay healthy- a big if- he has a premier wide receiver to throw to as well. Playing in Buffalo in December is not ideal, but the price is so cheap he’s worth it. If you get him get a good backup just in case he doesn’t pan out.

113. Houston Defense- Still too early for a defense. I’d grab one in the 13th or 14th in a 15 round draft in most standard formats. This unit is good if JJ Watt is 100% healthy. He’s recovering from back surgery. If JaDeveon Clowney does anything they can be a force.

114. Jameis Winston Qb- Had a solid rookie season. Expect Tampa to open it up now. Has an emerging star in Mike Evans. Needs better yardage totals to get me interested, but I think his touchdowns will improve. I’d want him more as a backup than as a starter- at least for now.

115. Charles Sims Rb- He runs high which leads to a lot of hits. Sims has outstanding receiving skills which makes him a strong play in ppr leagues. In addition, if anything happens to Doug Martin- he becomes the guy. I like others better, but he’s a lottery ticket. Worth a shot.

116. Jimmy Graham TE- A former elite tight end who was right up there with Gronk now trying to come back from one of the most grueling injuries a player can have- a torn patella tendon. I don’t see this working out well. Let someone else take the gamble. The odds are against him. Avoid

117. Kansas City Defense- Still good, but they’re getting up there in age. Losing Justin Houston to suspension the first few games doesn’t help. Pass

118. Torrey Smith Wr- Some of the pundits think he’ll be the guy in Chip’s offense. I’m not sure. He’s a burner more than a route runner. The 49’ers offense is a mess and they play a brutal schedule. Pass

119. Isiah Crowell Rb- A talented running back in a Hue Jackson offense has potential. The problem- he’s on the Browns. Cleveland lost all pro center Alex Mack to free agency and they have no defense- so they’ll be trailing and forced to pass. That means Duke Johnson is more valuable than Crowell. Pass

120. Dion Lewis Rb- Lewis came on last year before getting hurt. Was a ppr monster and scoring like crazy on a prolific offense. He’s on the pup list- not worth a pick until he’s healthy. Will he get back to 100% this year? Maybe. I’ll pass

121. Graham Gano K- Too early for any kicker. Pass

122. Corey Coleman Wr- Coleman had a terrific preseason. Might be okay, but once Gordon comes back I think he’s the guy, not Coleman. If I’m getting anyone on Cleveland it will be Gordon and then Duke over Coleman. Since I don’t want too many Browns I’d pass.

123. Andy Dalton Qb- Never been a big fan, but he was having a career year until he got hurt. Losing Eifert to injury and Marvin Jones to free agency hurts. They really added some pop to Cincy’s offense. Will the new coordinator open things up or keep it run focused? Eh maybe Dalton is okay as a backup because of their cakelike schedule, but I’d be leery of him as my starter.

124. Matthew Stafford Qb- Okay not to be mean, but I hate this guy. Had him a few years ago and every time I started him he did lousy and when I benched him he was awesome. Obviously he took a payoff from my no good friends to stick it to my team. His mechanics are awful. Losing Calvin Johnson hurts big time. Calvin covered up a lot of bad throws and won those jump balls. The price is right, but I don’t want him.

125. Martellus Bennett TE- This is still a touch early for drafting tight ends, but he might be the exception if things break right. If your patient I think he pays dividends. He’ll be worthless the first 4 weeks while Brady is out, but when Tom returns things get interesting. The Patriots will try to use him the way they used Aaron Hernandez with Gronk a few years ago- a lot of 2 tight end sets. And if anything happens to Gronk- you’re sitting on a lottery ticket to boot.

126. Markus Wheaton Wr- Martavis Bryant’s suspension for the year creates an opening on one of the most powerful offenses in football. Sammie Coates seems to have squandered a golden opportunity so it looks like Wheaton is the play. He asked to move outside from the slot which could open up some big plays for him- especially since he has some wheels. I like him as a sleeper and the price is right.

127. Travis Benjamin Wr- He finally has a quarterback who has the ability to get him the rock so Benjamin could have some decent weeks. The risk- can the Chargers lousy line give Rivers the time he needs to connect with Benjamin? If they can- he’ll hit some big plays. He’s more valuable in non ppr leagues. He’ll struggle in the red zone because he lacks height. I like others better including his teammate Tyrell Williams. So with all that said I’ll pass.

128. Vincent Jackson Wr- VJax as he’s called is nearing the end. He’s lost a step and he plays second fiddle to Mike Evans down there. The Bucs added Cecil shorts as well. I’m not a fan of getting receivers in their 30’s. Limited upside here. I’ll pass.

129. Jason Witten TE- A determined competitor who refuses to let injuries keep him out of games. However, he’s older and his touchdowns have slipped. Losing Romo can’t help and if Dak struggles the Cowboys will struggle. Even if Dak pans out-mark my words (see my name is Mark so I used mark in the phrase there…um never mind. I guess you had to be there.) the Cowboys are first and foremost a running team. I’ll pass.

130. Jason Tucker K- Too early for kickers even though he’s solid. And if you’re a Die Hard fan he has an awesome fantasy team name- Yippi Ki Yay Mother Tucker! Man I‘m on a roll. Pass

131. Theo Riddick Rb- Okay for ppr leagues, but I think the Lions struggle offensively. Pass.

132. Christine Michael Rb- He looks like the real deal. I know I know you heard the same story last year. Well guess what, you’re going to hear it again until it works haha! Lynch is gone and when he came back to Seattle late in the year he came on strong. Coaches say he has a new outlook under him- he’s had an awakening. If Rawls breaks down again- he’s the guy. And even if he doesn’t I still think they split carries because of his strong preseason. One of my top sleepers. The price is right (Hey it’s the end of the 11th round) and I’m buying!

133. Marcus Mariota Qb- Came on a little later on in the year. I don’t think he can hold up behind that lousy Titan line. Losing Dorial Green-Beckham hurts. He would have helped in the red zone. He has a longer learning curve than Jameis Winston due to the offense he played in college. Pass.

134. Bilal Powell Rb- Wasn’t high on him, but the loss of Khiry Robinson to injury helps his touchdown potential. He’ll split carries with Forte. If he can stay healthy might have some decent weeks. The Jets schedule is menacing though. I like others better.

135. Spencer Ware Rb- The expert hype train is in full force on Ware. They think he’s the handcuff to Jamaal Charles who is recovering from a torn acl and isn’t ready yet. I’m not so sure. I think Charkandrick West and possibly even Knile Davis might split carries with Ware in Charles’s absence. Pass

136. Devin Funchess Wr- Did alright last year, but remember Kelvin Benjamin missed last year due to injury. The Panthers are a running team. This guy is not known for his jumping ability either. Better options out there. Pass

137. LA Rams Defense- Their front line is beast like, but their secondary can be had. If quarterback Jared Goff gets the call later this season it kills their value. He’ll most likely commit a lot of turnovers, like most rookies, and put their defense in tough spots. Pass

138. New England Defense-Losing Chandler Jones hurts. Rob Ninkovich is banged up as well. In addition, they rarely return kicks for touchdowns. Pass

139. Tevin Coleman Rb- This guy is a game changer. He can run like a gazelle and has decent size. He reminds scouts of Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson. A home run threat to take it to pay dirt anytime he touches it. He has decent hands to pile up some catches. He’s in a rbbc in Atlanta, but he was drafted ahead of Freeman. A rib injury early last year hampered him. One of my top sleepers and the price is absurdly cheap. I’m all in.

140. Matt Ryan Qb- How the might have fallen. Experts have finally given up on him. He still looks lost in the Falcons new offense. Atlanta plays a tough schedule.too. Might be okay as a backup, hard to trust week in and week out, which is hard to believe considering who he’s throwing to in Julio Jones.

141. Kamar Aiken Wr- I’m not believer. I think he benefited last year because he was the last guy standing. Their wide receivers were decimated last year to injuries. The guy I like in Baltimore, in non ppr league’s is Mike Wallace, not Aiken. Pass

142. Minnesota Defense- They’re a solid and underrated unit. They’ll play indoors now which could hurt their weather advantage. If the Vikings offense can do anything they’ll get some turnovers. Cordarelle Patterson is one of the games’ most dangerous return men.

143. Chris Boswell K- Too early for kickers. That said this guy did well last year. Even with the Steelers going for a lot of two point conversions which drives me nuts if I own a kicker, he gets a lot of opportunities because of that hurry up offense. And he makes his opportunities count which is impressive, especially in a tough place to kick like Pittsburgh.

144. Alfred Morris Rb- He’s the backup to Elliott. A handcuff and a lottery ticket if Elliott gets hurt- nothing more.

145. Dwayne Allen TE- This is why I wait on tight ends. Besides Moncrief, Allen is a prime red zone target who plays on a high octane offense. The free agent departure of Coby Fleener and the abysmal Colt defense should ensure a lot of chances. He’s a top sleeper at tight end for me, especially at this price.

146. James White Rb- A lot of people are anointing him the 3rd down back in New England, but as Lee Corso says not so fast my friends. The signing of free agent Bishop Sankey is a major threat in my opinion, as is the eventual return of Dion Lewis. Brady’s 4 game suspension makes him useless those weeks. Bust

147. Michael Thomas Wr- Had a decent preseason, but so did Brandon Coleman last year after Saints beat reporters talked him up. and I never heard from him again after I drafted him. Thomas will have to prove it to me first. I’m avoiding.

148. Darren Sproles Rb- Might be useful in ppr leagues, but the Eagles lack of offensive firepower makes this a wasted pick in most formats. No thanks

149. Mason Crosby K- Crosby is a good kicker on a solid offense, but it’s better towait until the last round to draft a kicker. They’re too unpredictable. Pass

150. Tony Romo Qb- His first series in the preseason and he gets hurt. I’m sorry, but Tony it’s time to retire. He looked old and slow against Seattle. Stick a fork in him- I think he’s done. For better or worse- Dak’s the guy in Dallas.

151. Dan Bailey K- Solid kicker, but still too early and Dallas’s poor defense worries me. I’d pass.

152. Cincinnati Defense- A solid defense unless they play the Steelers, but they lost Reggie Nelson to free agency and Vontaze Burfict to a 3 game suspension. In addition, William Houston a promising rookie is out for the year. They’re good, but they could have been even better.

153. Dak Prescott Qb- I’m not a fan of drafting rookie quarterbacks, but Dak might be decent. His rushing ability give him sneaky upside. He reminds me of Donovan McNabb. Might be okay as a backup- but that’s the highest I’m willing to risk it. Most rookies struggle their first year.

154. Chandler Catanzaro K- Decent kicker who should get a lot of opportunities, but I’m still waiting until the last round for a kicker. Pass

155. Terrance West Rb- West had a solid preseason, but trying to guess the Ravens running back is like picking the lottery. No idea so I’ll pass.

156. Devontae Booker Rb- They love him in Denver and he looks like the 3rd down back there. Scouts compare him to Arian Foster. I’m not a fan of the Denver offense, but this guy is legit. Worth a shot here.

157. James Starks Rb- An insurance policy for Eddie Lacy, but that’s about it. I’ll pass.

158. Jared Cook TE- Sleeper alert. Like many I’ve been burned by Cook in the past, but now he’s got a real quarterback throwing him the rock. His speed creates matchup problems for defenders. I think this year he finally pays dividends and if he doesn’t it’s only a 14th round pick. Possible steal.

159. Steve Smith Wr- As tough as they come, but this is his final year. I think he’s on a snap count. He has the name value, but can he hold up? The guy I want in Baltimore is Mike Wallace not Smith. Pass

160. Ladarius Green TE- Concussion issues are ending his career. It’s a shame because in Pittsburgh he would have put up some good numbers. Pass

161. Tajae Sharpe Wr- Impressive preseason, but he’s too small for my liking which limits his red zone chances. The Titans spread the ball around as well. Pass

162. Blair Walsh K- Still too early for a kicker. Walsh is a good kicker despite his heartbreak chip shot miss in the playoffs. He plays indoors now, but that Vikings offense can be painful to watch sometimes. Pass

163. Will Fuller Wr- This guy can flat out fly. Anytime he touches it he can make big plays. Scouts call him a touchdown machine. Looked impressive in the preseason. More valuable in non ppr leagues. I like him and the price is definitely right. Sleeper

164. Mohamed Sanu Wr- He’s not fast and not that tall, and plays second fiddle to Julio. If Jones go down he becomes interesting, but other than that- eh he’s okay- not great. Pass

165. Zach Miller TE- He plays on the Bears- enough said. Not interested. Pass

166. Ted Ginn Wr- Kelvin Benjamin is back and the Panthers don’t pass it much as it is. No thanks. Pass

167. DeAndre Washington Rb- The rookie needs to hang on to the rock, but he should get some work. The Raiders want to lighten Murray’s load and if anything happens to Latavius, DeAndre is the guy. Murray isn’t the most durable guy in the world either. Washington seems a little light to be a three down back though. He might be worth a shot.

168. Ryan Fitzpatrick Qb- Had a career year last year and the Jets play a brutal schedule now. Can he repeat? Has some impressive receivers in Marshall and Decker, but the odds are against him. Pass

169. Brock Osweiler Qb- The Texans have some impressive weapons, but their line is shaky with the loss of the rookie center Martin. In addition, they might want to run the ball more. Beware Braxton Miller who might be used near the goal line in wildcat plays. The receiver was a former quarterback at Ohio State. Texans might have overpaid for Brock in free agency and the Broncos who needed a quarterback didn’t match the offer which is a red flag. Let’s wait and see first. Pass

170. Ryan Tannehill Qb- The Dolphins took this guy early and he hasn’t panned out. This is a make it or break it year for him. The team is struggling in the new offense. He’s not accurate and can’t throw a deep ball. Bust

171. Victor Cruz Wr- Can he be the same player as he once was? If so, can he hold up over the course of the season? I don’t think he can. The salsa dance is over folks. Pass

172. Pittsburgh Defense- Hurry up offenses are great for offensive players like Brown and Bell, not so much for the team’s defense. Bust

173. Laquan Treadwell Wr- The Vikings offense was terrible with Bridgewater. Can Bradford do any better? I’m not expecting much- it’s a run heavy offense. This guy is big, but slow. This year’s rookie receiver class isn’t as highly regarded as past rookie receiver classes. Pass

174. Chris Johnson Rb- CJ2K has lost a step. Might get some work to spell David Johnson, but make no mistake he’s a backup. Even if he gets the full time roll due to injury, I’m not sure he can hold up. Pass

175. Green Bay Defense- Dom Capers has his best secondary since joining the Pack. Playing a soft NFC North schedule helps their cause. I like them as a value play.

176. Brandon McManus K- He kicks in the thin air which helps the ball travel farther, but I think their offense struggles which will limit opportunities. Pass

177. Adam Vinateri K- Has made some of the most clutch kicks in NFL history, but his career his nearing the end. He no longer has the same leg to kick long field goals and the Colt defense or lack of it could force Indy to abandon field goal attempts if they fall behind. Pass

178. Eric Ebron TE- I’m not a fan of the Lions offense. Last time I checked Ebron is still on Detroit. Pass

179. Cairo Santos K- Not the most accurate kicker, but the Chiefs offense tends to bog down in the red zone. A little early for me. Pass

180. Tyler Boyd Wr- He had a good preseason, but he looks like a slot receiver so that limits his yardage totals. Pass

181. Alex Smith Qb- He’s way too careful with the rock as far as fantasy football is concerned. If he throws a touchdown it’s a miracle. Hard to believe he was an overall #1 pick originally by the 49’ers who took him over Aaron Rodgers. Pass.

182. Dorial Green-Beckham Wr- A top sleeper of mine until he was traded to Philly. He has speed and size. The trade of Bradford kills whatever value he might have had this season. If Wentz develops he could emerge next season. This year seems unlikely. Pass

183. Jerrick McKinnionRb- AP’s backup in Minnesota so a lot of pundits love him. I don’t. The Vikings offense isn’t that good- especially without AP. Pass

184. Karlos Williams Rb- He had a great rookie season and was one of my sleepers until he ate himself out of the league. The Bills cut him. His weight gain is truly unbelievable. I mean if you’re making millions playing football you’d think you’d invest in a personal trainer, a chef, something. Ugh! Do I even have to say bust?

185. Mike Wallace Wr- Finally it’s a Ravens receiver I like. He finally has a decent quarterback to get him the ball. The last time was back in Pittsburgh with Big Ben. Now he gets to play them twice a year. Flacco’s strong arm seems like a perfect match with his speed. More valuable in non ppr leagues. Should connect for some big plays- especially against the Steelers. Sleeper.

186. Robert Griffin III- RGIII is a great team player, but he just doesn’t have the pocket presence or ability to read defenses. It’s a shame because he was electric at Baylor and during his rookie year. Playing behind a weak Browns line doesn’t help matters. Pass

187. Phillip Dorsett Wr- This guy can fly. He’s faster than T.Y. Hilton which is saying something. A smaller receiver, but could break some big plays with Luck throwing him the rock. I like him. Sleeper.

188. Darren McFadden Rb- He broke his elbow and now he fears he’ll never regain full use of it. A shame- this guy was electric in college, but has had an injury plagued NFL career which might be coming to an abrupt end. Pass

189. NY Jets Defense- Their front is very formidable against the run, but Revis has lost a step. They’re okay- not great.

190. Sebastian Janikowski K- The Raiders defense is improving so they’ll be in most games. He should get a lot of opportunities with that offense and he has potential for big weeks because of his strong leg. I like him.

191. Josh Doctson Wr- He looks like a good player, but he’s a factor next year not this one. Pass

192. Connor Barth K- Recently signed by the Bears. I think they did it just to tick me off after I bashed their offense in this article. This is the guy who cost me a title two years ago. He missed a 48 yarder which would have won it for me. Do I even have to say pass? I hope you rot you slug haha!